Thursday, November 02, 2006

The real "landscape" of this Race

While I have been known to disagree with Mr. Tom Olsen on many of his viewpoints (a little to left for my liking), he does seem to understand current landscape of the leadership race - which is more than I can say for the media in general and Leger Marketing.

As you will have noticed from my last blog, I was none to happy with Leger Marketing and the Calgary Herald/Edmonton Journal for their ridiculous poll from yesterday and its accompanying analysis. I am still waiting for the poll that asks first "Have you purchased or plan to purchase a PC Alberta Party membership for the purpose of voting in the leadership election in late November?" If no, "thanks for your time"; if yes, "who do you plan to vote for out of the following canadidates...?"

Now really, is that to hard to ask? This would give us a much closer picture as to the actual landscape of this race instead of the flawed "meet the deadline and budget" polling garbage that is currently being practiced. Anyway...I digress

Tom Olsen, like myself and others, have seen through this media fog and recognize what is a far more likely picture of the current election landscape (see the link below).

Of particular note is the following observations:

"Polling done for the Herald showed 27 per cent of Tory party supporters plan to vote in the upcoming leadership. The PCs have about 53 per cent support across the province, so extrapolate the percentage who actually plan to cast a ballot and the number is frighteningly small....

...But take it as fact, leadership races rely way more on selling memberships than appealing to the public at large.

This is no general election, and the turnout will be small.

It will come down to who can woo the most people to take out memberships, then get those folks to the polls.

That's where organization comes in, and every camp boasts there's is most capable. They're not equally competent, of course. I believe Dinning is in front, with Ted Morton somewhere in the top three.

At this point, the race for third place will come down to Oberg and Ed Stelmach. He with the best system on the ground wins to fight again, a week later."

Tom Olsen is dead right...this will come down to organization and the level and size of devoted followers. Its still early, but I (like Tom) think its going to be Dinning, Morton, and flip a coin between Stelmach and Oberg. And I dont see more than 10% between 1 and 2, and 2 and 3.

Dinning has buckets of cash and can pay for organization.

Morton is the candidate of the grassroots federal Reform/Alliance/Conservative base and wont need to pay for too much organization.

Oberg has solid profile but a questionably small devoted base.

Stelmach has a solid and devoted base, but how will he do outside of it?

Its going to be very interesting. I have this feeling that there are still some major fireworks in the making before this thing is put to bed. Stay Tuned.